The first-quarter earnings season kicks off this week with Usiminas' numbers on Friday the 24th, and gains momentum next week when results from companies like Santander, Suzano, and WEG are expected.

With companies more indebted than a year ago and interest rates still at high levels, the expectation is for a challenging season. According to BTG Pactual's projections, 43% of the 126 publicly traded companies under its coverage are expected to show a decline in results in the first quarter — whether due to a drop in profit, an increase in losses, or a reversal to negative territory.

Part of this deterioration, however, does not stem from operations, but from the cost of debt. On the operational front, the picture is more positive: BTG projects that 74% of companies should register EBITDA growth year-on-year.

At the end of the first quarter, the Selic rate, the benchmark for corporate debt interest rates, fell 0.25 percentage points to 14.75% — below the most optimistic projections of an initial drop of 0.5 pp and insufficient to provide relief in financial expenses.

Among the companies expected to show a decline in their bottom line, almost half should show operational improvement, indicating that the pressure is concentrated on financial results. This dynamic is expected to repeat itself across different sectors of the economy.

One example is Vulcabras. The company ended 2025 with a net debt of R$ 769.4 million , compared to R$ 22.6 million a year earlier. Most of this fundraising occurred in the second half of the year, which has been increasing financial expenses.

In the fourth quarter, financial expenses totaled R$ 47.3 million, a 90% increase compared to the same period in 2024, putting pressure on the net financial result, which went from a positive balance of R$ 1.7 million to an expense of R$ 20.4 million. With the higher cost of debt, the profit of the owner of Olympikus fell 6.1% in the period, even with EBITDA advancing 14.8%.

For the first quarter, BTG projects an 18.2% drop in Vulcabras' net profit, while EBITDA is expected to grow 10.6% year-on-year.

This financial pressure has been even more intense in the case of Dexco. For the first quarter, BTG projects a 26.1% growth in EBITDA, but a 36.4% drop in net profit.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the owner of Deca recorded a financial loss of R$ 222.5 million, 42.4% higher than in the same period of 2024. With debt eroding results, Dexco ended 2025 with a 46% drop in net profit, even with EBITDA advancing 12% in the fourth quarter.

According to the company, the increase in financial expenses was driven by higher average debt and interest rates that the company considered to be at still high levels.

In the real estate sector, the scenario is similar with Multiplan, which in 2025 suffered a 179% increase in its financial losses, to R$ 537.7 million. According to BTG, in the first quarter, the company's profit is expected to shrink by 25.1%, even with an EBITDA increase of 0.9%.

“An ideal leverage ratio is very theoretical, because it depends heavily on the interest rate level. We were once comfortable with three times (net debt/EBITDA) at a different interest rate level. Today, we have 2.33 times,” said Multiplan's CFO, Armando D'Almeida Neto, during the presentation of the latest results in February. “We have no control over what that interest rate will be.”

Since then, expectations of a more intense interest rate cut cycle have given way to concerns about the economic effects of the wars in the Middle East , leading the market to revise its projections for the Selic rate and inflation upwards.

In Monday's Focus report, economists projected interest rates to reach 13% by the end of the year, compared to the consensus of 12.5% last week. Inflation expectations have also deteriorated significantly, with the market projecting IPCA (Brazilian consumer price index) at 4.88% for 2026, 0.63 percentage points higher than expected four weeks ago.

In this scenario, pressure on financial results should continue to be one of the main drivers of profit deterioration throughout the year, often overshadowing operational improvements.