Santander Bank initiated coverage of Bradsaúde 's stock, just over three weeks after the stock began trading on the B3 stock exchange under its new ticker following the integration with Odontoprev .
According to analysts Caio Moscardini and Eyzo Lima, the healthcare platform that brings together Bradesco's health insurance, hospitals, diagnostics, and healthtech companies, as well as a dental plan operator, under one umbrella has a potential appreciation of 42% - added to the projected dividend, the total return reaches almost 48%. The target price for SAUD3 shares is R$ 18.30 by the end of 2026, with a buy ( outperform ) recommendation.
Bradsaúde, which now operates with net revenues exceeding R$ 42 billion, is a cash generation engine, according to Santander analysts. The heart of the business is the health insurance company, which accounts for approximately 90% of consolidated net profit.
With revenues close to R$ 45 billion and a portfolio concentrated on large corporate clients in the São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro markets, the company operates in the premium segment of the Brazilian private market - the one with the highest average ticket price among all competitors.
According to Moscardini and Lima, the central issue for investors is not so much profit growth – projected at a CAGR of 10% between 2025 and 2030 – but the ability to convert that profit into dividends.
In the report, they describe that "the relevant issue is not only growth, but how much of that profit base can be converted into distributable cash" after the requirements for coverage of technical provisions and minimum solvency capital before the ANS (National Agency for Supplementary Health).
The analysts' model navigates this regulatory labyrinth and concludes that Bradsaúde has room to gradually increase its payout ratio – from around 50% in 2026 to something close to 85% in the long term, as its solvency leeway widens.
The projected dividend yield for 2027 and 2028 reaches 7.6% and 9.3%, respectively, which transforms the stock into a relevant income thesis by Brazilian stock market standards.
If health insurance is the cash generator, Atlântica Hospitais is the long-term bet. It is a joint venture with Rede D'Or through which Bradsaúde holds 49.99% of a hospital investment and operation platform with 19 assets and more than 3,600 beds.
Santander has identified 46 Brazilian cities with potential for expansion of new hospitals, most of them concentrated in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.
The estimate is that the total net present value of this opportunity reaches R$ 17 billion. Moscardini and Lima write that the strategic logic goes beyond direct financial return: the analysts observe that, in cities where Rede D'Or opened hospitals, SulAmérica registered a gain in market share – and they believe that the same pattern could be repeated with Bradsaúde.
The company also has stakes in Mater Dei , Hospital Albert Einstein, and Grupo Santa, partnerships that are expected to materialize in new projects starting in 2029.
Today, the stock is trading at 9 times (x) the estimated earnings for 2026, a multiple that Santander analysts consider “excessively low”.
Santander concludes that the market is pricing the insurance business separately at only 8.4x P/E, a level well below SulAmérica's pre-pandemic historical average, which hovered around 11x before being acquired by Rede D'Or.
Moscardini and Lima's analysis does not ignore the points of concern. The main one is structural: medical inflation. The cost of healthcare procedures in Brazil has been systematically pressuring health insurance companies, and any acceleration above what was expected could quickly squeeze margins.
There is also regulatory risk — changes in the minimum capital criteria required by the ANS (National Agency for Supplementary Health) could reduce the distributive capacity modeled by the bank. And a less obvious risk, pointed out by the analysts themselves: the possibility that Bradsaúde's management might prefer to maintain reserves above what is necessary, instead of releasing the excess as a dividend (a conservative option that would lower the projected dividend yield ).
